Expecting a 77% decrease in the hiring of junior developers in the Korea… How developers can survive?

Prospects for changes in SW developer recruitment and generative AI

Startup investment in 2023 decreases by 65%, developers job market hit hard

According to a report released by the Software Policy Research Institute in Korea, there is a significant change happening in the domestic software developer hiring market in Korea. The demand for developers, which had sharply increased due to the acceleration of digital transformation after COVID-19, is gradually decreasing from the second half of 2022 due to economic downturn and reduced investment. In particular, the ongoing trend of high interest rates domestically and internationally has led to a sharp contraction in venture capital investment, which in turn has resulted in a decrease in hiring by IT companies.

According to Startup Recipe’s data, the number of startup investments in 2023 decreased by approximately 65% compared to the previous year to 965, and the investment amount also decreased by 51% to 5 trillion 8,110 billion won compared to the previous year. Additionally, the number of startup closures has increased significantly from 71 in 2021 to 119 in 2023, and is expected to reach 144 by the first half of 2024.

Amidst this economic pressure, major Korean IT companies such as Naver and Kakao have significantly reduced new hires. Naver hired 231 new employees in 2023, which is only half of the 599 hires in 2022. Similarly, Kakao hired 425 new employees in 2023, a significant decrease compared to 994 in 2021 and 870 in 2022.

AI writes the code, developers manage code quality: The changing role of developers with generative AI

The rapid development of generative AI is fundamentally redefining the role of software developers. According to expert Delphi survey results, the spread of generative AI is expected to polarize the software developer job market. The demand for junior developers responsible for simple coding tasks is rapidly decreasing, while the demand for advanced developers handling AI utilization, system design, complex problem-solving, etc., is expected to increase. As natural language prompts for code generation become more common, repetitive coding tasks will be replaced by AI, and developers will focus on more creative and strategic tasks. With the increasing importance of reviewing AI-generated code and security verification, the role of developers is shifting towards code quality management.

Industry developers participating in in-depth interviews pointed out that “generative AI brings opportunities and risks to junior developers at the same time.” While there are concerns about role reduction and decreased demand for hiring due to the replacement of simple repetitive tasks, on the other hand, AI can enable faster learning and skill enhancement, allowing for opportunities to take on a wider range of tasks. Many experts (62%) participating in the Delphi survey cited domestic and international economic downturn as the main cause of the current changes in the software developer job market, while 38% of experts identified technological innovation such as generative AI as the cause. However, it is forecasted that the influence of generative AI will increase in the long term.

The top priority capabilities are creative problem-solving skills and communication skills

In the era of generative AI, key competencies that software developers should possess include creative problem-solving skills, collaboration skills, communication skills with other fields, AI utilization skills, validation skills for generative AI results, and proficiency in using development support tools. In particular, experts have emphasized creative problem-solving skills and communication skills with other fields as the most important competencies. Generative AI can automate repetitive tasks such as code writing, but areas that require creativity and contextual understanding such as problem definition, system design, and user requirement analysis will remain within the realm of human developers.

Furthermore, the importance of collaboration skills and communication skills is becoming increasingly emphasized. Developers are no longer limited to writing code independently, but are expanding their role to collaborating with various stakeholders to solve business problems.

Collaborative skills and AI experience are preferred instead of coding tests

The emergence of generative AI is also bringing changes to the process of hiring software developers. While opinions on the necessity of coding tests have differed between working developers and experts, it has been shown that traditional coding tests are likely to evolve into more complex tests that enhance practical skills or are based on the use of AI. It is forecasted that companies will prefer developers who possess creative problem-solving skills and domain knowledge rather than just coding abilities. In particular, the ability to collaborate with AI tools during the hiring process, project experience, and submitting content from personal code repositories like GitHub will be important factors in evaluation.

The recruitment methods of Korean companies vary. While Naver maintains a coding test and portfolio-based evaluation, Toss emphasizes job interviews without a coding test, and Baedal Minjok is confirmed to prioritize multi-stage interviews and culture-fit evaluations.

The influence of generative AI varies depending on the level of developers

Generative AI is expected to have a differential impact depending on the level of developers (beginner, intermediate, advanced). According to expert Delphi survey results, the opinion that beginner developers will have the biggest impact was overwhelming at 77%. Beginner developers mainly handle simple and structured tasks such as code writing and debugging, areas where generative AI can effectively operate. Therefore, developers who only have basic coding skills may have weakened competitiveness.

On the other hand, intermediate developers may be able to take advantage of the benefits of generative AI and may even see an increase in demand due to relatively rational labor costs. Advanced developers are expected to have a sustained demand as they possess the ability to solve complex problems and design systems that are difficult for generative AI to do. Real-world developers who participated in in-depth interviews expected that the use of generative AI tools would standardize the capabilities of beginner developers. Additionally, intermediate and advanced developers believed that team management, planning, and business collaboration skills would become more important than development skills, and there was also a discussion about the possibility of transitioning to development managerial roles in the long term.

Human developers are essential to take responsibility for the results

Despite the development of generative AI, experts have forecasted that it will be difficult to completely replace software developers. According to Delphi survey participants, 61% responded that the possibility of generative AI replacing software developers is low. The reasons for this include the final responsibility for development outcomes, defining new problems, contextual thinking, etc., which will remain unique areas for human developers. Furthermore, as generative AI itself is a type of software, developers will still be needed to develop and improve it.

However, there is a high evaluation of the partial replaceability of junior developers. In particular, repetitive and predictable coding tasks can be efficiently performed by AI, so developers focusing on such tasks are expected to face inevitable role changes.

Be prepared for the polarization by securing capabilities in big data, AI, and fintech.

In order to effectively respond to the polarization of the software developer hiring market due to the spread of generative AI, comprehensive efforts at the individual, corporate, and governmental levels are necessary. Junior developers should expand their capabilities beyond simple coding skills into specialized areas such as big data, AI, and fintech, as well as enhance problem-solving abilities using generative AI tools. The government needs to revamp software developer training programs with a focus on utilizing big data and AI technologies to support this.

Advanced developers need to quickly grasp the latest technology trends and increase work efficiency by utilizing generative AI development tools. They also need to enhance problem-solving skills with AI, big data, cloud, and other emerging technologies. The government should support the capacity-building of advanced developers through participation in conferences and developer community activities.

Entering the SW·AI convergence industry is also an important response strategy. As industries such as fintech, healthcare, autonomous vehicles, and smart factories expand with the integration of SW and AI technologies, the demand for developers with domain knowledge is increasing. The government needs to expand SW education related to convergence industries and support specialized training for industry-specific SW and AI solutions development.

FAQ

Q1: With the emergence of generative AI, what skills should beginner developers enhance in order to maintain their competitiveness?
A: Beginner developers should enhance their creative problem-solving skills, AI utilization skills, domain knowledge, etc. beyond simple coding abilities. In particular, it is important to utilize generative AI tools to increase work efficiency, validate results, enhance collaboration and communication skills, and develop expertise in specific areas such as big data, cloud, fintech, etc.

Q2: In the era of generative AI, will coding tests still be meaningful?
A: Coding tests are still meaningful, but their form and purpose are expected to change. There is a high possibility that they will evolve to evaluate more complex problem-solving abilities based on the use of AI, rather than traditional coding tests. It is expected to shift towards measuring higher-level skills such as algorithm design, understanding system architecture, and strengthening relevance to practical work.

Q3: What is the likelihood of generative AI completely replacing software developers?
A: Experts evaluate that the likelihood of generative AI completely replacing software developers is low. The final responsibility for development outcomes, defining new problems, contextual thinking, etc. will remain unique areas for human developers. However, for beginner developers, there is a high probability that repetitive coding tasks will be largely replaced by AI, so role changes and sophistication are necessary.

The original report quoted in the article can be found at the link provided.

Image source: Ideogram Generation

This article was written using Cloud and ChatGPT.